PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, a milder pattern continues across the Canadian prairies this week, with daytime highs generally in the –5°C to +5°C range, and southern areas occasionally reaching into the low teens. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with only light snow flurries in the north and far west, while central and southern regions remain dry and relatively warm for mid‑January. Producers should still watch for rapid temperature swings and wind chills, especially in open areas, but overall conditions remain manageable for winter feeding and travel.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Feb & Mar futures brief for today

January WASDE report delivered a supply shock Tuesday, crushing grain markets as USDA raised corn production to record 17.0 billion bushels and ending stocks to 2.2 billion bu. Livestock futures rallied briefly on cost relief, while energy volatility continues.

Corn (Mar '26): $4.21/bu (down 2¼ cents overnight, off ~3% from Dec highs). USDA raised U.S. production to 17.0 billion bu (record yield 186.5 bpa), lifting ending stocks to 2.2 billion. Trades at 13th percentile 5-year range. Canadian basis down sharply. ​

Soybeans (Jan '26): $10.28/bu (down 3 cents on WASDE bearishness). China sales (168k MT to China, 152k MT to Mexico) show real demand, but South American supplies loom. USDA unchanged on prices.​

Live Cattle (Feb '26): $235.825/cwt (+0.58 cents overnight). Feeder cattle $357.525 (March, +$1.35). USDA raised 2026 beef production to 25.8 billion lbs on heavier dressed weights. Choice boxed beef $357.11/cwt, highest in 3 weeks.​

Lean Hogs (Feb '26): $84.60/cwt (+0.18 cents, down 0.875 cents Monday). USDA raised 2026 pork production to 28.2 billion lbs on larger pig crops. Pork cutout $93.10/cwt, up $0.78. CME Lean Hog Index $80.85, 12-14 cent discount to futures.​

Natural Gas (Feb '26): $3.409/MMBtu (up on cold weather forecasts). EIA storage withdrawal 119 BCF (week ended Jan 2) greater than expected. LNG exports ~18.5 Bcf/d remain elevated.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: CME, USDA WASDE, DTN, Sprague Energy

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Live Cattle Futures Rally on Feed Cost Relief and 2026 Beef Production Upside - Live cattle futures gained 1.525 cents to $235.825/cwt and March feeder cattle jumped $1.475 to $356.175 as the WASDE report crushed corn prices and reduced feed costs by 15-20%. USDA raised 2026 beef production but noted heavier dressed weights will offset lower slaughter volume. ​

• Choice Boxed Beef Hits 3-Week High; Demand Strength Drives Packer Margin Improvement - Choice boxed beef cutout jumped to $357.11/cwt (highest in 3 weeks, up $1.48 from Friday) despite record grain harvest, indicating sustained retail demand. Select cuts also rallied $5.88 to $358.05. ​

• Prime Minister Carney to China Jan 13-17; Tariff Relief Discussions on Canola, Pork Expected - PM Mark Carney departs for China on January 13 to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and security. First PM visit since 2017. Canadian agriculture expects discussions on tariffs on canola, peas, pork, and seafood.

  
  

📉 Bearish:

• CFIA Pauses Livestock Traceability Regulations After Producer Backlash; Implementation Delayed - The Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced January 10 a pause on publishing proposed amendments to livestock traceability regulations following significant industry pushback and social media misinformation. Beef Farmers of Ontario, Canadian Cattle Association, and provincial groups called for delay to address cost, flexibility, and transition concerns.

• Pork Production Forecasts Raised to 28.2 Billion Lbs; Larger Pig Crops Overwhelm Futures Rally - USDA raised 2026 pork production to 28.2 billion lbs (from 27.5 billion) based on higher-than-expected pig crops in H2 2025, contradicting lean hog futures strength. Hog futures fell 0.875 cents Monday despite Monday packer bidding.

• Corn Collapse Threatens Canadian Farm Profitability; Basis Deteriorates Sharply - With March corn crashing to $4.21 and Canadian basis deteriorating sharply post-WASDE, Ontario corn basis (previously $1.35-$2.12 over) is now under pressure.

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INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🌾 SASKATCHEWAN WHEAT BREEDER RICHARD CUTHBERT RESIGNS; CONCERNS OVER SUCCESSION PLANNING
Richard Cuthbert, wheat breeder at Agriculture Canada's research centre in Swift Current, Saskatchewan, resigned effective end of January after 15 years in the role. SaskWheat and Wheat Growers Association expressed concern about the loss and lack of apparent succession plan, noting federal budget cuts and decade-long funding pressure on public wheat breeding programs.

💻 TECHNICAL SKILLS GAP LOOMS FOR CANADIAN AGRICULTURE; AI-DRIVEN EQUIPMENT OUTPACING WORKER TRAINING
Farm equipment dealer Enns Brothers and RBC research highlight a growing disconnect between rapidly advancing agricultural technology (AI weed sprayers, autonomous equipment) and available skilled workers. RBC pledged $5 million toward Manitoba agriculture initiatives including hackathons and micro-credentials to attract students to the sector.

📱 UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO STUDY EXAMINES HOW FARMERS ENCOUNTER AND SPREAD AGRICULTURAL MISINFORMATION
A PhD student from the University of Waterloo is conducting a survey through end of January to understand how Ontario farmers encounter misinformation online, the topics of false information, and how producers themselves may inadvertently contribute to misinformation spread.

📊 U.S. FARM BILL MOMENTUM BUILDS; LAWMAKERS SEE OPENING TO FINISH UNFINISHED BUSINESS
U.S. lawmakers from both parties expressed renewed urgency to complete farm bill work, with some suggesting reversal of tariffs as the "best thing we can do" for farmers facing input cost pressures and market headwinds.