PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, the Canadian Prairies will be cool and mostly dry this week. Early week brings sunny to cloudy skies with highs near freezing to 4°C. Frost risk is present throughout, especially overnight. By late week, temperatures dip slightly colder with highs near 0°C to -3°C. No major storms expected, typical late-autumn weather with fair conditions overall.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Soybeans took a beating Friday, plunging 17-22½ cents after the USDA's November Crop Production report showed yields higher than expected, erasing earlier optimism from China trade news. January futures closed at $11.24½, still holding a 7½-cent gain on the week despite Friday's selloff. The USDA report caught bulls off-guard, but underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Export inspections topped 1.425 million tonnes last week, and marketing year shipments exceeded 13.7 million tonnes, signaling heavy overseas buying. The question: will China's restored export eligibility for three US firms and suspended retalietary tariffs translate into actual purchase orders, or remain political theater?​

Corn futures fell 10-11½ cents Friday, closing December at $4.30¼, as the USDA's yield cut fell far short of trader estimates. Despite Friday's losses, December still managed a 3-cent gain on the week. The market is trading near June highs on tightening US supply prospects meeting unusually strong export demand, last week's inspections hit 1.425 million tonnes. South American offers are growing sharply more competitive with Brazil approaching a near-record crop, but for now, US corn retains its export momentum.​

Wheat closed mixed Friday, with December Chicago down 8½ cents at $5.27¼, December Kansas City down 11¾ cents, and Minneapolis down 8¾ cents. Despite the losses, wheat futures remain well-supported by global supply tightness and strong US export inspections. The price spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City December contracts remains compressed below normal ranges, suggesting spring wheat is undervalued relative to hard red winter.​

Crude oil rallied over 2% Friday to $60.09/bbl, snapping a two-week losing streak on supply risk concerns. Ukrainian drones hit Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight, following major Russian airstrikes on Kyiv, while Russia's Lukoil began cutting staff across global oil trading units ahead of US sanctions taking effect. December crude closed up $1.40, though the market remains 10.21% lower year-over-year amid persistent oversupply concerns.​

Natural gas pulled back over 4% Friday to $4.57/MMBtu after rallying to December 2022 highs, following a larger-than-expected EIA storage build. US energy firms injected 45 bcf into storage for the week ending November 7, bringing total stocks to 3,960 bcf, 4.5% above the five-year average. Still, natural gas is up 51.39% over the past month and 61.74% year-over-year on strong LNG export demand (17.8 bcfd in November) and forecasts for colder December conditions.​

Canola eased to CAD $647.50/tonne Friday, down 0.52%, near mid-September highs as tightening Southern Hemisphere supplies and a firmer vegetable oil complex offset lingering trade frictions. Australian growers in southern New South Wales and Victoria report small, uneven crops with yields between 1-2.5 tonnes per hectare, trimming exportable supply. January canola futures closed at CAD $654.30.​

Livestock saw mixed action Friday. December live cattle closed up 15 cents at $219.15, while January feeder cattle gained $2.10 to $320.55. December lean hogs rose 42 cents to $78.50 on oversold signals and midday pork strength, though the contract still lost 90 cents on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index fell another 3 cents November 12 to $88.83, and pork cutout value jumped $1.96 to $97.22 on Friday with the butt primal leading gains.​

How to position into the day

Soy / Grains: Beans vulnerable after USDA report, watch $11 support. Corn holding near June highs on export strength but Brazilian competition looms. Wheat compressed spreads suggest spring wheat value.
Energy / Oil: Crude found support on supply risks but structural oversupply persists. Scale into shorts on rallies toward $62.
Natural Gas: Pullback from multi-year highs on storage build, but LNG demand and December cold forecasts support dip-buying.
Livestock: Cattle finding stability; hogs bounced on oversold conditions but cash weakness persists. Trade cautiously.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: Barchart.com, TradingEconomics.com, Brownfield Ag News, Producer.com

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Feeder Cattle Supplies Tightening; Q1 2026 Beef Production Expected Down Sharply - Canadian cattle analysis shows feeder cattle supplies entering Q4 2025 are down from last year, with lower US beef production forecast for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 expected to enhance fed cattle prices on both sides of the border. Feed grain costs are expected to drop $30–$40/tonne over the coming month, improving feeder margins. Analysts expect February and April 2026 live cattle futures to incorporate a risk premium due to uncertainty in production.

• Corn Ethanol Production Hits Record 1.088 Million Barrels Per Day - Weekly ethanol production set a record at 1.088 million barrels per day in the week ending November 12, with EIA data showing 18-year-high corn export inspections supporting strong domestic crush demand. Ethanol stocks drew to 22.219 million barrels, maintaining healthy demand/supply ratios.

• Global Grain Stocks Hit Record Levels; Trade Remains Strong Despite Surplus - The FAO projects 2025 global grain production at 2.990 billion tonnes (4.4% higher year-over-year), with global grain stocks hitting 916.3 million tonnes, a 5.7% increase and the highest level since 2017–2018. Despite record stocks, global grain trade remains active with exports staying strong, suggesting demand destruction from higher prices is minimal and supplies are being absorbed into consumption channels.

📉 Bearish:

• USDA Corn Yield Cuts Disappoint; Trade Expected 3-Bu Cut but Got 0.7-Bu Trim - The November WASDE disappointed corn bulls seeking significant yield reductions after traders anticipated nearly a 3-bushel cut to justify higher prices. Instead, the USDA trimmed corn yield just 0.7 bu to 186.0 bu/acre, keeping US production elevated at 16.752 billion bushels. Combined with a 207 million bushel increase in beginning stocks, total US corn supply remains abundant.

• Global Wheat Ending Stocks Rise to 271.4 MMT—First Year-over-Year Increase Since 2019-20 - The USDA raised global wheat production 12.7 million tonnes in November, pushing 2025-26 global ending stocks up 7.4 million tonnes to 271.4 million, the first year-over-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019-20. Argentina's production jumped to 22.0 mmt and Australia's to 36.0 mmt, adding massive export availability.

• Packers Ramp Slaughter Speeds for Holiday Demand; Risk of Supply Exhaustion Post-Year-End - With improved packer margins from lower feed costs, packers have significantly ramped up kill speeds, with weekly slaughter running 560,000+ head and Saturday harvests remaining strong. This accelerated pace could exhaust available beef supplies faster than anticipated, creating a supply gap in January 2026 when cattle availability tightens further.

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INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🌍 Canada Pledges $392 Million for International Climate-Smart Agriculture at COP30
Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin announced November 13 at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil that Canada will spend $392 million on international climate action projects, with the bulk directed toward foreign farm initiatives. Funding includes $263 million to the International Fund for Agricultural Development to help smallholder farms adapt to climate change, $15 million for sustainable land management investments in emerging markets, and $8 million to CGIAR to help 38 million small-scale producers adapt to climate change. The announcement draws criticism for prioritizing foreign farms while Canada's own agricultural sector faces budget cuts. Farmers Forum

🥛 Canadian Farmgate Milk Price to Rise 2.3255% Effective February 2026
The Canadian Dairy Commission announced November 3 that the farmgate milk price will increase by 2.3255% on February 1, 2026, translating to just over two cents per litre, reflecting upward pressure on feed costs and labour expenses. The National Pricing Formula adjustment recognizes that while Canada's inflation rate remained within target in 2024, dairy producers faced sustained cost pressures. The combined effect of the milk price increase and adjustment to carrying charges will result in a 2.3750% increase in the cost of milk used to make dairy products for retail and restaurant sectors. Bakers Journal

🤝 US Signs New Trade Deals with Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, El Salvador
The United States announced November 13 it has signed reciprocal trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador, with tariffs at 15% for Ecuador and 10% for the three others, but with exemptions for products like coffee and bananas that "cannot be produced in sufficient quantities in the U.S." Crucially, the US and Argentina committed to "improved, bilateral market access conditions for trade in beef," signaling potential opportunities for North American beef exports if tariffs ease. Agreements will be formally signed within two weeks. Canadian Cattlemen

🔬 Pest Management Centre Output Cut in Half; Crop Protection Tools Backlog Growing
The Fruit and Vegetable Growers of Canada raised urgent concerns about declining access to modern crop protection tools, noting that Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Pest Management Centre (PMC) is now producing about half the output from a decade ago due to funding limitations. Meanwhile, Health Canada's Pest Management Regulatory Agency (PMRA) registration timelines commonly miss performance standards, creating significant delays in bringing new products to market. The sector is requesting restoration of research capacity and additional resources at the PMRA to process minor use label expansions. FVGC

📊 Canada Manufacturing Sales Jump 3.3% in September; Agricultural Equipment Gains
Statistics Canada reported November 14 that manufacturing sales improved 3.3% in September to C$72.1 billion, the highest level since February with gains across 14 of 21 subsectors. Transportation equipment rose 9.2% and petroleum-coal gained 5.3%, supporting demand for agricultural machinery and fuel. Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, grains, and oilseeds) were up 0.6% in both sales and volume. Canadian Cattlemen

🌾 Alberta Premier Smith Highlights Ag Sector as Key Contributor to Global Food Security
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith attended Cypress County's third annual Ag Connections Conference on November 13, keynoting a gathering focused on agriculture's role in global food security. Farm Credit Canada presented the latest agricultural economic outlook, while IG Wealth Management discussed tariff impacts. Smith's presence underscores the province's commitment to positioning Alberta agriculture as essential infrastructure amid global supply uncertainties. Chat News Today

🚀 USDA Releases November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Friday 11am CST
The USDA will release its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Friday at 11 a.m. CST, with last month's report cancelled due to the US government shutdown adding uncertainty to the upcoming figures. US corn and soybean production are expected to show slight declines versus September, while ending stocks for all major grains are anticipated to increase slightly. The daily export sales report for the week ending November 13 will also be released. Canadian Cattlemen