PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, Pacific warmth will dominate the Canadian prairies this week, bringing daytime highs of 4°C to 8°C in southern areas and –5°C to 0°C further north, with overnight lows near –8°C. Weak systems will deliver cloudy skies and chances of light flurries or mixed precipitation, but no major storms are expected. Alberta may see highs into the mid-teens by week's end, easing livestock stress and improving travel, though eastern Manitoba remains cooler.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Mar & Apr Futures Brief

Precious metals mounted a recovery Tuesday after Monday's violent correction triggered by Kevin Warsh's Fed chair appointment. Energy markets remain hostage to weather data. The grain complex rebounded on technical oversold conditions, though structural oversupply remains the dominant narrative. Silver's volatility spike presents tactical hedging opportunities. Natural gas continues to gyrate on forecast swings. For producers entering the day: watch for Trump trade policy headlines and monitor Argentina weather updates - both carry binary upside risk.

THE COMMODITIES SNAPSHOT:

Crude Oil (Mar '26): $63.61/bbl (up 0.64% Tuesday after two consecutive down sessions). WTI attempted rebound following -4.71% Monday selloff tied to Iran de-escalation signals and Fed policy uncertainty. Dollar strength continues to exert downside pressure; crude remains fragile in $62.50–$64.50 trading band. US-Iran tensions briefly elevated Monday before diplomatic signals softened geopolitical premium.

Natural Gas (Feb '26): $3.32/MMBtu (up 0.37% Tuesday, +0.87% daily). March contract: $3.82. The market absorbed a stunning -25.7% Monday collapse - worst single day since 1995 - following dramatic weather forecast shift to milder, near-normal US temperatures through mid-February. Production recovery (50+ Bcf post-freeze) flooding market. EIA storage withdrawal expected 230 BCF (vs. 5-yr avg 208 BCF) signals underlying demand, but warming negates heating need through Feb 14.

Gold (Feb '26): $5,084.87/t.oz (+2.80% Tuesday after -9% Monday massacre). Silver: $90.395 (+5.86% after -13% Monday). Precious metals correcting from historic highs ($5,608 Jan peak, $90+ silver). Monday's 9–13% bloodbath hit leveraged specs hard; CME margin increases accelerating de-risking.

Corn (Mar '26): $4.217/bu (-0.45% Tuesday, 11th percentile 5-yr range). USDA export sales tracking 69% of annual projection (vs. 5-yr avg 60.8%). Ethanol production at record highs (Dec data: 1.1M bpd) supporting steady demand. Canadian basis (old-crop): $1.35–$2.26 over March; new-crop: $1.05–$1.45 over Dec 2026. January USDA shock report (17.02B bu global ending stocks) continues to weigh; corn lacks upside catalysts until supply tightens meaningfully.

Soybeans (Mar '26): $10.535/bu (-0.40% Tuesday, 13th percentile 5-yr range). China tariff relief (on canola/meal/peas effective March 1) underpinning cautious optimism, though Chinese buyers diversifying sourcing away from US due to Trump policy concerns. AAFC projects 2026-27 area +2.1% to 5.933M acres; yield recovery to 47.1 bpa from 43.6 bpa. Old-crop basis: $3.10–$3.55 over March; new-crop: $2.91–$3.11 over Nov. USDA export sales (week ending Jan 15): 2.46M MT to China, Egypt, Mexico.

Wheat (Mar '26): $5.189/bu (-0.62% Tuesday, but +13.5 cents from Friday lows). USDA export sales tracking 85.3% of projection (vs. 5-yr avg 78.5%). Global inventories at 5-year highs (276.2 mmt) cap rally attempts. AAFC projects all-wheat yield drop to 48.5 bpa (vs. exceptional 55.9 bpa in 2025); durum down 450k acres. Wheat is "priced for negativity" - any recovery faces formidable resistance.

Live Cattle (Apr '26): $236.825/cwt (down $0.58 overnight). Screwworm blockade on Mexico imports persists; no imminent reopening. Feeder Cattle (Mar): $361.425/cwt. Boxed beef Choice at $357+. FCC 2026 forecast: $280/cwt Alberta fed steer (vs. 2025 peak $295). Tight U.S. supplies supporting price floor through 2Q.

Lean Hogs (Apr '26): $95.725/cwt (down $1.10). Pork cutout: $97.26/cwt, up $1.51. April/June/July contracts at contract highs. USDA slaughter: 426k head Monday (down 5,345 YoY). Tight supply signals persisting.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: Trading Economics, Barchart.com, USDA WAERS, CME Group, DTN Progressive Farmer, AAFC, Farm Credit Canada, ICBF

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Irish Beef Cattle Genomics Database Reaches 6.2 Million Genotypes; Accelerates Global Breeding Innovation in Carcass Quality Traits - The Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) announced (Jan 4) that it now manages one of the world's largest cattle genotype databases containing over 6.2 million genotypes from dairy and beef cattle, with a remarkable 1.1 million genotypes added in 2025 alone. Close to 42% of all Irish calves born in 2025 were genotyped - an achievement unmatched by any other country at a national level. ICBF's first genetic evaluation of 2026 will be published March 24 following infrastructure upgrades designed to handle exponentially growing datasets. Genomic innovations enable earlier identification of high-potential animals, accelerated genetic gain through shorter generation intervals, and improved breeding decisions.

• Ontario's Hard Red Wheat Breeding Pipeline Expands with Climate-Smart Trait Development; First Growing Season Completed - A three-year AAFC-led project dubbed "Climate-smart trait development to increase resilience of Eastern Canadian hard red wheats" launched in 2025 with first growing season now complete. The initiative emphasizes germplasm development (pre-breeding phase) to identify forward-looking traits, including multiple disease resistance, higher yield, improved nitrogen-use efficiency, and biological nitrification inhibition. By combining germplasm and variety development approaches, researchers are expanding the pipeline of market-ready hard red spring and winter wheat varieties for Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. New varieties often require 10–20+ years to reach commercialization, making the long-view strategic focus critical. Project completion: March 2028.

• B.C.'s Agricultural Technology Adoption Program Funds 80 Agtech Projects with $4M+ Investment; Farm Automation Leaps Forward - Innovate B.C. announced (Jan 4) that the B.C. On-Farm Technology Adoption Program (BCOFTAP) has awarded $4+ million to 80 projects supporting farm modernization. Supported by Canada and British Columbia through the Sustainable CAP, funding targets automation and robotics, sensor-based monitoring, and digital decision tools. Pemberton Valley Farms, for example, acquired a carrot harvester that "completely transformed our operation," extending local vegetable market availability. Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald noted that "technology is helping farmers in British Columbia overcome challenges and increase efficiencies."

📉 Bearish:

• Canada and Ontario Launch $20M Market Diversification Initiative; Global Competition Intensifying as Peer Nations Consolidate Digital Agriculture Leadership - Governments of Canada and Ontario announced (Jan 20) a joint $20 million Market Diversification and Trade Resiliency Initiative opening for applications February 17, targeting farmers and agribusinesses seeking expanded international market access. However, deeper analysis reveals Canada's digital agriculture adoption lags peer countries including Australia, the Netherlands, and Israel, all of which have implemented comprehensive digital agriculture frameworks. A new report from the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute warns that current 2023-2028 Sustainable CAP policy does NOT prioritize digital agriculture adoption, leaving Canada's competitive position at risk. Large grain operations lead adoption; smaller farms and horticulture lag.

• Regulatory Red Tape Costs Canadian Farmers, Stuns Growth; AAFC Acknowledges 19 Regulatory Initiatives with Only 33% Completion Rate - Canadian farm industry leaders warned (Feb 1) that red tape and burdensome regulations are stunting growth and putting agriculture's future at risk, with tariffs, weather, and crop prices already creating significant headwinds. AAFC responded that it is "working on modernizing regulations" via 19 initiatives, with only one-third completed and remainder either in progress or forthcoming - with many expected to conclude within two years. The slow pace of regulatory modernization compounds cost pressures: farm expenses up 50% since 2019 vs. 20% general inflation.

• Chinese Soybean Buyers Diversifying Away from North America; Trade Deal Win Overstated as Geopolitical Risk Accelerates Supplier Reshuffling - Despite China-Canada tariff relief on canola and meal (effective March 1), Chinese buyers are strategically diversifying soybean sourcing away from the U.S. due to persistent concerns about Trump administration trade policy volatility. Beijing's preference is shifting toward Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay as more reliable long-term suppliers. Global soybean harvests remain strong across all origins, flooding the market. This combination of abundant supply and shifting demand destroys the upside narrative around China tariff relief - North American soybean prices face structural headwinds despite positive trade headlines.

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INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

💼 CANADA & ONTARIO LAUNCH $20 MILLION MARKET DIVERSIFICATION & TRADE RESILIENCY INITIATIVE; APPLICATIONS OPEN FEBRUARY 17

Federal and provincial governments announced (Jan 20) joint $20 million investment through new initiative supporting farmers, processors, and agribusinesses seeking expanded international market access for Ontario-produced goods. Initiative opens for applications February 17, 2026, with three funding streams targeting planning, marketing, and equipment/technology to facilitate market entry. Part of Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership.

🔬 CANADIAN WHEAT RESEARCH COALITION LAUNCHES REVIEW OF WHEAT BREEDING INNOVATION SYSTEM; SAFEGUARDING FARMER INVESTMENTS IN PUBLIC BREEDING

The Canadian Wheat Research Coalition (CWRC) engaged Synthesis Agri-Food Network to review Canada's wheat breeding innovation system (announced Sept 2025; review ongoing). CWRC invests over $9.5 million per year through core breeding agreements (CBAs) with AAFC, University of Saskatchewan, University of Manitoba, and University of Alberta. Farmers contribute nearly half of estimated total public wheat R&D costs. CWRC CBAs have resulted in registration of 40+ new wheat varieties; study shows farmers received $33 in benefits for every $1 invested in wheat breeding (1995–2020). Review aims to ensure continued competitive global positioning and farmer investment returns.

🐄 CANADA & SASKATCHEWAN FUND 25 NEW LIVESTOCK & FORAGE RESEARCH PROJECTS; $4.5M ALLOCATED FOR SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION INNOVATION

Federal Minister Heath MacDonald and Saskatchewan Minister David Marit announced (Jan 21) that $4.5 million has been allocated for 25 new livestock and forage research projects via the Agriculture Development Fund. Saskatchewan renewed $3.9 million in partnerships with Prairie Swine Centre and Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization. Projects include hybrid bromegrass development, Johne's disease biomarker research, and strategies for sustainable bison production. Thirteen industry groups contributed $1.3 million, boosting total funding. Programs coordinated under Sustainable CAP.

⚖️ NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR APPROVES LATE APPLICATIONS FOR AGRISTABILITY SUPPORT; DROUGHT-AFFECTED PRODUCERS NOW ELIGIBLE THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2026

Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald and Newfoundland & Labrador Minister Pleaman Forsey announced (Jan 23) late participation for 2025 AgriStability Program for drought-affected producers. Late applications accepted until September 30, 2026. Coverage addresses income drops due to production loss, input costs, and market changes. Other business risk management programs (AgriInsurance, AgriInvest) remain open for 2026. Producers should contact provincial offices for details and application support.

💰 FCC: BEEF CATTLE HERD EXPANSION SIGNALS EMERGING IN CANADA; US HEIFER RETENTION AT 75-YEAR LOW SUPPORTS PRICE FLOOR THROUGH 2026

Farm Credit Canada (Jan 22 outlook) reported that Canadian cow-calf producers and feedlots are positioned for another year of strong prices driven by moderating feed costs. Herd expansion signals are emerging in Canada (cow/heifer slaughter at 41% of total animals—below 40% threshold signals herd growth). US heifer retention rates remain at 75-year low; US cow/heifer slaughter still near 49% of total, signaling continued US herd liquidation. This dynamic will support North American cattle prices through 2026. FCC 2026 forecast: Canadian fed steer prices at $280/cwt (Alberta), down from 2025 peak of $295 but well above 5-year average of $220.

📊 MINISTRY LAUNCHES CONSULTATIONS FOR NEXT AGRICULTURAL POLICY FRAMEWORK; FEDERAL-PROVINCIAL-TERRITORIAL AGREEMENT TO REPLACE SUSTAINABLE CAP (2028-2033)

Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald convened (Jan 20) an industry roundtable in Ottawa to begin consultations for the Next Policy Framework (NPF), which will follow the current Sustainable CAP as the main support mechanism for Canadian agriculture from 2028–2033. Ongoing stakeholder sessions, regional meetings, and national online consultation will seek sector input on current and emerging challenges. Interested parties can provide feedback via NPF webpage. Critical for 2026-27 planning as industry seeks signal on digital agriculture prioritization and trade policy certainty in successor framework.