PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, an active winter pattern will affect the Canadian prairies this week as a strong cold front brings snow, blowing snow, and gusty winds, especially across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Behind the front, much colder Arctic air surges in, with daytime highs dropping into the –20°C range and wind chills near or below –35°C in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, creating hazardous travel and stressful conditions for livestock.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Mar & Apr futures brief for today

PM Carney's China trade deal unlocked $6.6 billion in market access. Livestock futures hit multi-month highs on disease concerns and strong demand, while natural gas surged 17% on Arctic weather.

Corn (Mar '26): $4.24/bu (down 0.5% overnight, still down ~3% from Dec highs). Old-crop basis $1.35-$2.26 over March futures; new-crop basis $1.05-$1.45 over Dec 2026. WASDE record production (17.02 billion bu) keeping downside pressure. ​

Soybeans (Mar '26): $10.76/bu (+0.05% overnight, up 0.20% month-to-date on China demand). China purchased 204k MT this week (Jan 15 sales). Old-crop basis $3.10-$3.55 over March; new-crop $2.91-$3.11 over Nov 2026. ​

Wheat (Mar '26): $5.18/bu (higher on WASDE report). Minneapolis spring wheat $5.65; September $6.04. Ontario SRW wheat $6.61 cash; July new-crop bid $6.57.​

Live Cattle (Apr '26): $238.425/cwt (+1.100 cents). Feb $236.05, up 0.9 cents. Choice boxed beef $357.11/cwt, holding strength. Live equivalent $267.93.​

Feeder Cattle (Mar '26): $364.55/cwt (+4.850 cents). April $362.925, up 4.750 cents. Mexico screwworm keeps supplies tight; feeder Jan premium to CME index $5.88.​

Lean Hogs (Feb '26): $87.80/cwt (+2.100 cents to contract high of $87.90). April hogs $95.00, up 2.300 cents (contract high). Pork cutout $93.60, up $2.31. CME Hog Index $80.50 (Jan 13).​

Natural Gas (Mar '26): $3.489/MMBtu (up 17% Jan 19 on Arctic blast forecast for late Jan/early Feb). Feb contract at $3.547; LNG feedgas constraints supporting rally.​

Not financial advice.
Data sources: CME, USDA WASDE, GFO, Barchart.com, TradingEconomics.com

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Canada-China Tariff Deal Unlocks $6.6B Market Access; Canola Tariffs to Drop from 84% to 15% by March 1 - Prime Minister Mark Carney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe secured a landmark trade deal in Beijing: Canada expects China to lower tariffs on canola seed to a combined rate of about 15% by March 1, 2026. Canada also expects canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas to have anti-discrimination tariffs removed from March 1 until at least year-end. In exchange, Canada will allow up to 49,000 EVs into Canada at a 6.1% tariff rate. ​

• Feeder Cattle Surge to Multi-Month Highs; Mexico Screwworm Blockade Tightens Supply - March feeder cattle jumped to $364.55/cwt (multi-month high, up $4.850 cents) as the ongoing Mexico screwworm blockade continues to suppress feeder supplies. Feeder January premium to CME index reached $5.88. ​

• Lean Hog Futures Hit Contract Highs on Disease Concerns and Export Strength - February lean hog futures soared to $87.90 (contract high since Oct 9) as disease concerns (African swine fever, porcine epidemic diarrhea) threaten US herd stability. April, June, and July hogs set life-of-contract highs. Pork exports totaled 26.8k MT/week with Mexico taking 9.2k MT weekly. ​

📉 Bearish:

• Saskatchewan Wheat Breeder Richard Cuthbert Resigns; Succession Crisis Deepens in Federal R&D - Richard Cuthbert resigned as wheat breeder at Agriculture Canada's Swift Current research centre effective end of January after 15 years in the role. SaskWheat chair Jake Leguee called the resignation "a surprise and a loss for producers," noting "these are big shoes to fill". Wheat Growers Association executive director Darcy Pawlik expressed concern about the "apparent absence of a succession plan" and noted 15% federal budget cuts come on top of nearly 10 years of funding pressure on public wheat breeding. ​

• Producer Backlash Forces CFIA to Pause Livestock Traceability Regulations; Compliance Concerns Mount - The Canadian Food Inspection Agency paused publication of livestock traceability amendments after massive producer pushback over move-in reporting timelines (7 days vs. current 30) and individual animal tracking burdens. Saskatchewan Cattle Association chair Chad Ross stated: "Without producer buy-in, compliance is going to be minimal. In order for this to work, we have to have compliance". APAS president Bill Prybylski emphasized: "Producers want to produce food, they don't want to be producing paperwork".​

• U.S. Calls Canada-China EV Deal "Problematic"; Trump Retaliation Risk Looms - U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer said Canada's reduction of EV tariffs was "problematic" and suggested Canada would not like the deal "in the long run". The comment signals potential US retaliation against Canada's divergence from US-China trade policy. ​

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INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🎯 CANOLA GROWERS DEMAND $2-4 BILLION COMPENSATION FROM OTTAWA FOR TARIFF DAMAGES
Despite the historic China-Canada trade deal, the Canadian Canola Growers Association is seeking compensation for losses incurred during the 18-month tariff war. A LeftField Commodity Research study determined damages amounted to $2-4 billion in 2025-26. Alberta Canola chair Andre Harpe said: "We need compensation for the damages. To me, there's no question about that." An Alberta Canola poll of 105 growers found 72% agreed Ottawa should compensate growers. Harpe estimated canola prices dropped $1.25/bu following the trade spat.

🏭 TAGAT FOODTECH OFFICIALLY LAUNCHES JANUARY 19; CONSOLIDATES PET FOOD & ANIMAL PROTEIN SUPPLY CHAIN ECOSYSTEM
TAGAT Foodtech announced its official launch on January 19, 2026, consolidating a complete ecosystem of solutions for the animal protein supply chain across pet food and livestock sectors.

📊 ONTARIO FARMERS OPTIMISTIC ON CARNEY CHINA VISIT BUT WARY OF US RETALIATION
Ontario farmers and agricultural organizations welcomed PM Carney's China trade deal as a "bold move" on canola tariffs but remain concerned about potential US retaliation under the Trump administration. RealAgriculture founder Shaun Haney called the timing "a very fascinating turn of events," noting it positions Canada to "stick up for itself" on the international stage.​

🚜 MANITOBA AG DAYS 2026 RETURNS JANUARY 20-22; 36 NEW EXHIBITORS AT KEYSTONE CENTRE
Canada's largest indoor farm show, Manitoba Ag Days, runs Jan. 20-22, 2026 at Brandon's Keystone Centre with 36 new exhibitors this year. New features include Ag In The Classroom-Manitoba taking over the Dome building for educational programming, with afternoon sessions highlighting careers in agriculture. The Innovation Showcase and Produced on the Prairies Market in the FCC Pavilion will feature 10 new exhibitors each day.

🌾 PRAIRIE CWRS WHEAT BIDS FIRM TO START 2026; WEAKER LOONIE SUPPORTS PRICES
Canada Western Red Spring wheat bids moved higher in early January, with average CWRS (13.5%) prices up $3.20-$5.60/tonne. Prices ranged from $246.10/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to $277.40/tonne in southern Alberta. The weaker Canadian dollar (C$1=US$0.7201) countered bearish influence from small declines in U.S. spring wheat futures. CWRS basis levels ranged from $6.10 to $22.40 below futures.