PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, fall is well underway with colder temperatures gripping on. It looks like relatively clear skies for everyone to finish off the week and some rain/snow in the forecast next week.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Crude oil is holding the line as traders wrestle with conflicting signals. WTI Nov ’25 (CLX25) settled at $61.73/bbl, with Brent nearby showing similar steadiness. The market remains stuck in a holding pattern — OPEC+ supply jawboning is offset by macro demand jitters. Until we see surprise draws or a policy spark, expect range-bound chop.

Natural gas remains firm. Henry Hub Nov ’25 (NGX25) is priced at $3.42/MMBtu, propped up by early-season cooling and steady LNG feedgas demand. The seasonal bid is real — bulls want confirmation from storage data.

Gold continues to act as the market’s macro insurance policy. COMEX Gold Dec ’25 (GCZ25) is trading around $4,061.50/oz. With softening real yields and macro uncertainty (hello, U.S. budget headlines), dips are still being bought. Stay alert for dollar strength — that’s the biggest near-term risk.

Grains & Oilseeds are mostly quiet but nuanced.

• Soybeans Nov ’25 (ZSX25) are quoting near $10.19/bu — a grindy zone driven more by daily export flashes than yield chatter at this point. Without a strong Chinese buying pivot, rallies may stall.

• Corn Dec ’25 (ZCZ25) is hovering around $4.19¾/bu, continuing to face harvest pressure and weak ethanol margins.

• ICE Canola Nov ’25 (RSX25) recently printed around C$605.20/tonne, with harvest pace and soy oil trends keeping trade directionless for now.

Softs like cocoa, coffee, and sugar are slipping. Cocoa, in particular, has unwound sharply after its speculative run — the result of improving supply expectations from West Africa and demand fatigue globally. These markets remain vulnerable unless fresh weather or geopolitical headlines strike.

On the livestock front:

• Live Cattle Oct ’25 (LEV25) trades around $235.60/cwt

• Feeder Cattle Nov ’25 (GFX25) ~$354–355/cwt

• Lean Hogs Oct ’25 (HEV25) holding just under $100/cwt

The tone is steady, with near-term movement tracking closely to daily cutout values and packer bids.

How to position into the day

• Energy: Trade the range. Expect crude to churn sideways unless inventories offer a bullish surprise or OPEC+ tightens tone.

• Gold: Still a “buy-the-dip” setup — macro risk remains elevated and real yields are softening.

• Oilseeds / Beans: Export flashes are the only real catalyst now. Without China stepping in, expect grindy chop.

• Livestock: Stay nimble — board action is hypersensitive to daily cash and cutout prints.

• Softs: No hero trades. Downside pressure likely persists without headline risk.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: APnews.com, Morningstar.com, MarketWatch.com, Exchange-rates.org, Agriculture.com, YahooFinance.com, Barchart.com 

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INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🏞️ Investors snapping up Canadian farmland - Some farmers getting uneasy as institutional and private equity interest in Canadian farmland has surged as investors seek stable returns. Some farmers worry this could drive land prices too high and crowd out family operations.

🤝 New Saskatchewan Farm Land Ownership Advisory Committee formed - The province has instituted a committee to review farmland ownership laws and farmer protections, addressing long‑standing concerns under the Saskatchewan Farm Security Act.

💰 Grain farming finances under pressure yet viewed as generally stable - With high input costs and soft grain prices, younger or leveraged farmers report stress. However, Farm Credit Canada asserts that overall, grain farming remains on solid financial footing.

📝 New program launched to help Ontario farmers adopt greener practices - A regional initiative has been announced in southwestern Ontario to incentivize sustainable or regenerative ag practices via support, funding, or technical assistance.

🐄 Canadian dairy sector doubles down on trade protection expectations - With U.S.–Canada trade talks looming, dairy farmers are pushing Ottawa to maintain or strengthen protections for supply‑managed sectors and resist further market access compromises.

🧐 CFIA updates on ostrich custody and biosecurity at BC farm - The Canadian Food Inspection Agency released its latest status on ostriches in Edgewood, B.C., and its ongoing biosecurity and containment practices, amid the high‑profile bird flu dispute.

🏛️ Will Canada’s defense spending boost rural/ag infrastructure? - A new analysis asks whether increased NATO/defense commitments might lead to infrastructure investment in rural zones — roads, power, connectivity — which could benefit ag communities.

👩‍⚖️Bill C‑202 continues to shape supply management policy debate - Though not brand new, Bill C‑202 (passed mid‑2025) remains a central law: it forbids trade negotiators from weakening dairy, egg, or poultry tariff protections. It’s a backdrop to current trade tensions.