PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, a persistent cold pattern will dominate the Canadian prairies over the next week, with daytime highs from -7°C to -14°C and frequent snow, especially in Alberta and Manitoba. Prepare for bitter wind chills and challenging travel and livestock conditions as temperatures stay well below normal.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Dec & Jan futures brief for today

U.S. markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, but Wednesday's trade provides a clear picture of a market grappling with geopolitical risk and shifting fundamentals. Thin holiday trading is expected in Canadian markets today.

Crude oil closed higher for a fourth straight session Wednesday, with WTI settling at $58.34/barrel, as bullish sentiment outweighed a mixed EIA report. While U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels, gasoline stocks rose by a larger-than-expected 1.3 million barrels, signaling tepid consumer fuel demand. The market is focused on the OPEC+ meeting next week (Dec. 4), where the group is widely expected to extend its current 1.3 million barrel-per-day production cuts into early 2026. This, combined with ongoing geopolitical risk from potential US-Mexico-Canada trade disruptions, is providing a floor for prices above the $55/barrel support level.​

Grain markets saw a pre-holiday rally Wednesday. Corn futures gained 7 to 8 cents, with December closing at $4.34/bu, driven by technical buying and signs of strengthening cash markets. Cash corn bids are running 6 to 7 cents higher nationally ahead of the holiday. Soybean futures also rose 5 to 7 cents, with the January contract at $11.35, as traders remain optimistic about Chinese demand following recent purchase announcements, despite the lack of major new sales this week. Wheat futures were mixed, with Chicago SRW gaining 1 to 2 cents while Minneapolis spring wheat saw modest pressure.​

How to position into the day

• Soy / Grains: Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the Dec. 4 StatsCan report. Any signs of a larger-than-expected Canadian canola crop could pressure prices. U.S. grain strength is dependent on export sales picking up after the holiday.

• Energy: Crude is range-bound between geopolitical risk (bullish) and weak consumer demand data (bearish). The outcome of the Dec. 4 OPEC+ meeting will set the next major directional move.

• Livestock: The market remains highly sensitive to trade headlines. Look for cash market trends to lead futures. Any confirmation of a path to avoid tariffs would be strongly bullish for both cattle and hogs.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: TradingEconomics.com, Barchart.com,

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• CN Rail Performance Improves; CPKC Hits Best Level of the Year - In grain week 16, CN and CPKC Rail supplied a combined 91% of hopper cars ordered, a modest improvement from 90% in week 15. CPKC performance hit its best level of the year, supplying 96% of shipper orders, up from 91% the prior week. CN supplied 85% of cars, a slight dip but still resulted in nearly 754,000 metric tonnes of grain moved by CN in week 15, surpassing the three-year average by 17%.

• Manitoba SRW Wheat Cash Bids Show Strength - Cash bids for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat at Hensall Co-op in Manitoba are showing notable strength, with the November 2025 crop bid at $9.34/bu. Forward contract bids for the 2026 crop are even higher, at $9.54 for March delivery and $9.81 for July.

• Russian Wheat Export Tax Could Crimp Global Supply - Russia's plan to implement a permanent floating export tax on wheat could be bullish for long-term global prices. The tax, set at 70% of the price difference above US$200/tonne, is expected to reduce Russian spring wheat plantings and could cut 1.5 to 2 million tonnes from its 2026 crop estimate.

📉 Bearish:

• Dairy Farmgate Milk Price to Decrease in 2025 - The Canadian Dairy Commission announced that the benchmark farmgate price for milk will decline by 0.0237% effective February 1, 2025. While the drop is less than one cent per litre, it marks a significant reversal after years of increases and reflects lower on-farm costs for inputs like feed. The decrease will apply in nine of ten provinces.

• Saskatchewan Harvest Lags Behind Long-Term Averages - Saskatchewan's final crop reports indicate that while harvest is mostly complete, progress consistently lagged behind five and ten-year averages due to high humidity and excess moisture in eastern parts of the province. Sprouting and poor quality were reported in cereal crops left in the field, which could lead to downgrading and discounts at the elevator.

• Thailand Approves 1M Tonne Zero-Tariff Corn Import Quota - As part of trade negotiations with the U.S., Thailand's cabinet has approved a plan to import 1 million tonnes of feed corn with a 0% tariff in 2026.

We had the pleasure of attending the Grain Expo this week!

Prairie Routes was proud to attend the 2025 Grain Expo at Agribition. We had a great time engaging in conversation with producers and other industry members! We look forward to continuing these conversations as we move forward.

Book your free consult today and see how we can help your farm thrive.

INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

• FCC Calls for Expanded Access to Capital and Land; Emphasizes Investment in Mentorship and Rural Communities: Farm Credit Canada's report recommends expanding access to capital and land, and investing in education, mentorship, and strengthening rural communities as key first steps to secure the agricultural sector's transition to the next generation and bridge the critical generational gap forming in Canadian agriculture.​

• Grain Futures Post Solid Gains Before Thanksgiving; Traders Square Positions: Canola futures posted solid gains in late trading for the week ended November 25, after trading to both sides of unchanged as traders squared positions ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and upcoming USDA reports.​

• Ontario Beef Auction Volumes Down 7,000 Head Year-Over-Year; Seasonal Fall Run Softening Cattle Prices: Ontario stocker sales totaled 1,221 head on November 21 with cows sold barely steady and plainer cows under pressure. Lighter weight categories saw the sharpest declines as market works through seasonal softening typical of the fall run.​