PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, a sunny start for the western prairies with highs near 10 °C, but expect clouds and light rain by Sunday. Central prairies see mild, clear midweek weather before showers move in Friday. Out east, it’s the chilliest, with brief warmth midweek, then back to single digits with frosty mornings and a wet weekend ahead.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Nov/Dec futures brief for today

Crude is under serious pressure yesterday. A new IEA report flagged a looming oversupply of ~3–4 million barrels per day over the next year, sending oil tumbling to five‑month lows. The market mood is fragile, unless production cuts or demand surprises show up, the downside risk is front and centre.

Gold still retains its appeal as a haven in this turbulence. With real rates soft and macro anxiety elevated, gold’s upside optionality remains intact, it’s where traders park in uncertainty.

In agriculture, beans and grains are quiet but restless. Soybean futures are holding near session lows as export momentum remains lackluster. Wheat is catching a slight bid, CBOT soft red wheat futures popped 3–4 cents today on bargain hunts. If buyers casually step in, this could be the kind of pet move that accelerates.

Softs are getting crushed. Cocoa futures have cratered to new 20‑month lows as demand softness meets improving supply fundamentals in West Africa. This shows just how fast the pendulum swings in speculative soft markets.

Livestock is messy. Lean hogs are wrapping up their October contract with modest gains. Feed, demand and margins are dominating more than futures curves.

How to position into the day

• Energy / Oil: Don’t force long positions. Wait for a clear supply surprise or demand re‑acceleration before leaning in.

• Gold / Metals: Retains asymmetric risk/reward — defend positions and scale into dips.

• Soy / Grains / Wheat: Wheat has tactical upside if buyers step in; beans need export confirmations to turn.

• Softs: Reduced exposure is the prudent default—only big shocks save them.

• Livestock: Watch margin trends and cash signals — futures will follow fundamentals more than sentiment.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: APnews.com, Morningstar.com, MarketWatch.com, Exchange-rates.org, Agriculture.com, YahooFinance.com, Barchart.com 

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Corn technical bounce on export inspections & tender prospects - Corn futures saw mild upside as export inspections, though down from highs, remain solid. December corn added ~2.25¢ amid talk of possible new sales into Taiwan in upcoming tenders.  Takeaway: If more export tenders or confirmations show up, that could sustain momentum in corn.

• Winter wheat finding support on technical short covering - Wheat futures have rallied in recent sessions via technical buying and short covering. December Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW contracts gained after prior weakness.  Takeaway: With supplies ample, wheat rallies are fragile — you want demand confirmations (export moves, weather stress) to validate strength.

• Policy shift boosting ethanol demand (California E15 law) - California just legalized E15 gas statewide, opening up demand for more ethanol. That boosts corn’s optional demand potential in the U.S. market.

📉 Bearish:

• Soybean weakness from export inspection drop and weak demand - Soybeans are under pressure: export inspections fell ~27% week-over-week, and November futures dipped ~1.25¢.  Takeaway: Unless China or another major buyer steps in, bean weakness may persist. Watch meal/oil spreads for clues.

• Slowing corn export inspections — demand softening - Even though corn got a minor bounce, recent inspections have pulled back (44.5 million bushels in the week through Oct 9, down ~34%) which could reflect softening overseas demand.  Takeaway: The bounce may be technical; the demand base needs to re‑affirm to sustain gains.

• Input & cost pressure in fertilizers, chemicals still weighing - In the “This Week in Agribusiness” commentary, analysts warned that input costs (fertilizer, chemicals, repair) are expected to stay high, squeezing margins.  Takeaway: Even if commodities rally, margin compression can blunt producer upside and reduce future planting risk.

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Book your free consult today and see how we can help your farm thrive.

INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🇲🇽 Agriculture Minister MacDonald Leads Trade Mission to Mexico
Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald departed yesterday for a four-day ministerial mission to Mexico (Oct 14-17), aimed at deepening Canada-Mexico agricultural ties ahead of the 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review. The timing signals Canada's strategic pivot to strengthen relationships beyond the U.S. as trade tensions mount. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

💰 Canola Cash Advance Support Falls Short of Expectations
Ottawa's main support measure for canola producers hit by China's tariffs will cost just $35-36 million over two years – a drop in the bucket compared to the $1.6-2 billion in potential lost value on the 2025 canola crop. The interest-free cash advance increase from $100K to $500K took effect last week but highlights the gap between government response and industry needs. RealAgriculture

🔄 Canadian Agriculture at a "Turning Point"
Experts at the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute's conference in Ottawa declared Canadian agriculture is facing unprecedented headwinds requiring immediate pivots. Trade tensions, climate challenges, and market volatility are converging to create what CAPI's managing director called "stronger headwinds than we've seen in my time in the sector." Farmtario

🇨🇦 Health Canada Extends Dicamba Consultation Period Health Canada has extended the consultation period on its proposed dicamba herbicide restrictions by 45 days, pushing the deadline from November 1 to December 16. The proposed changes include a ban on in-crop application of dicamba in soybeans and other limitations to prevent herbicide drift to off-target plants. RealAgriculture

🏦 Vive Crop Protection Closes $10M Investment Round Canadian agtech company Vive Crop Protection secured $10 million USD in an oversubscribed funding round led by Farm Credit Canada's FCC Capital, with participation from Emmertech, iSelect, and BDC Capital. The funding will accelerate product innovation and market expansion across North America. iGrow News

🐣 Canada Announces Import Rule Changes for Hatching Eggs The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) announced new pathogen testing requirements for imported hatching eggs as part of ongoing red tape reduction efforts. Industry experts expect minimal practical impact as U.S. suppliers already follow similar testing standards. Manitoba Co-operator