PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, a clear, calm start across the central prairies after a breezy few days, with highs near 9 °C and sunshine holding through midweek. Western regions stay mild under patchy cloud, while eastern prairies cool into the weekend as showers return by Friday

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Nov/Dec futures brief for today

Crude oil remains under notable pressure this week. December WTI crude futures (CLZ25) are hovering near $57–58/barrel. Despite ongoing geopolitical friction and OPEC+ signaling potential cuts, storage levels continue to climb globally, over 1.2 billion barrels sitting on tankers worldwide.

Natural gas tells a different story. December contracts (NGZ25) traded around $3.45/MMBtu, up on colder North American forecasts and record LNG export flows into Europe. Weather models turning sharply colder for late October have invited fresh speculative length, but volatility remains high as storage sits near multi-year highs.​

Gold continues to hold investor attention as the risk hedge of choice. Futures remain near $4,000/oz, steady after last week’s profit-taking. Real rates are soft, and with inflation prints mixed globally, the macro setup favors dips being bought into the year’s end. Silver is trailing, stabilizing near $49/oz after an early-October surge that briefly touched $51.​

The grains complex is muted but leaning bearish. November soybeans (ZSX25) hover around $10.31/bu, with export pace still disappointing. December corn (ZCZ25) trades near $4.22/bu, pressured by harvest flow and ample U.S. stockpiles. December Chicago wheat (ZWZ25) sits at $5.03/bu, consolidating after a soft quarter as global export competition ramps up.

Livestock markets are messy. Cash cattle are steady-to-weak across the prairies, while lean hogs show modest firmness as product demand stabilizes into year-end procurement cycles. Feed costs softening slightly may encourage better farrow-to-finish margins into Q4.​

How to Position Into the Day

• Energy / Oil: Avoid chasing rebounds. Wait for evidence of physical drawdown or policy headlines before re-entering longs.

• Gas / Power: Seasonal demand trends are supportive, tighten trailing stops if you’re long.

• Gold / Metals: Favor accumulation into weakness; inflation expectations and geopolitical tension sustain upside asymmetry.

• Soy / Grains / Wheat: Wheat’s technical floor gives it tactical bounce potential; beans and corn need export demand signals.

• Livestock: Margins and feed costs are driving direction more than sentiment; watch cash basis closely across regions.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: Barchart.com, Finance.Yahoo.com, MarketWatch.com, TradingEconomics.com, Reuters.com, Agriculture.com, Morningstar.com, APnews.com.

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Canadian railways plan record grain transportation capacity for 2025-26 – CN and CPKC have committed to moving 27–29.5 Mt and up to 34 Mt respectively in 2025-26, with Week 10 order fulfillment above 90% for both carriers, reducing harvest bottlenecks and ensuring timely export shipments.​

• Klassen: Feeder market extends rally to record highs across Western Canada – Western yearlings averaged $450 cwt for steers and $435 cwt for heifers in mid-October, driven by tight cattle supplies and robust processor demand.​

• CN wins federal appeal forcing review of Canadian rail rates – The Canadian Transportation Agency must revisit and potentially lower maximum grain-rail tariffs after CN’s appeal, which could reduce shipping costs by 8–12% for prairie farmers.​

📉 Bearish:

• Record canola harvest creates 3 million tonne stockpile, prices at multi-year lows - Canadian canola production for 2025-26 is expected to reach at least 21 million tonnes, up 27% from last year and 1.6 million tonnes above initial forecasts. With harvest 89-98% complete across prairie provinces and Chinese export channels blocked, stocks could hit 3 million tonnes by July 2026. More than double last year.​

• Prairie farm margins projected below average for third consecutive year at $50/acre - Farm Credit Canada forecasts 2025-26 margins for wheat-canola rotations at just above $50/acre before land costs, well below the five-year average of $100/acre. New-crop canola prices are projected at $600/tonne, spring wheat at $330, and durum at $425. All at or below five-year averages.​

• Saskatchewan canola farmers face market closure as not a single shipment reaches China - Since China imposed its 75.8% anti-dumping duty over the EV tariff dispute, Saskatchewan canola farmers report not a single shipment of seed, oil, or meal has entered the Chinese market. With bins full after harvest and marketplace access severely limited, producers face some of the lowest prices in recent years at a critical marketing period.​​

Want to Sell More Meat and Grain—Profitably?

Prairie Routes connects family farms with seasoned experts for 1-on-1 coaching tailored to your business. Whether you’re looking to grow your market, boost margins, or streamline sales, we’re here to help.

Book your free consult today and see how we can help your farm thrive.

INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🇨🇦🇺🇸 Trade Uncertainty Freezing Billions in Agricultural Investment
Trade policy volatility between Canada's two largest export markets, the United States and China is causing a dramatic freeze in agricultural investment. Manitoba Pork's general manager reports new hog barn construction ($15-20 million per facility) has essentially stopped despite ideal investment conditions. University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe warns current uncertainty could trigger a 25% drop in business investment and push unemployment up one percentage point. The Fields on Wheels Conference message: "We're one tweet away from the fundamental economic relationship being completely upended." Manitoba Co-operator

🚂 CN and CPKC Release 2025-26 Grain Transportation Plans
CN and CPKC unveiled grain transportation strategies for the 2025-26 crop year. CN is prepared to move 27-29.5 million tonnes (after a record 31 million in 2024-25), while CPKC targets capacity for up to 34 million tonnes. Week 10 performance showed system improvement with both railways combined supplying 93% of hopper cars ordered. CN introduced changes to empty hopper car distribution from West Coast ports, improving visibility and planning for grain shippers. Syngenta Canada

🇲🇽 Canada-Mexico Strengthen Agri-Food Ties Under 2025-2028 Action Plan
Minister of Agriculture Heath MacDonald concluded a four-day Mexico trip, meeting with Secretary Julio Berdegué to reinforce the Canada-Mexico Action Plan emphasizing sustainable food systems, scientific research, and trade expansion. The visit included the official launch of Canadian beef products in 42 Costco Mexico stores. Both countries are working to strengthen their role as strategic partners in global agri-food trade as CUSMA review approaches. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

📋 CUSMA Review Public Consultations Open. November 3 Deadline
The Canadian government launched public consultations on CUSMA operation, with submissions accepted until November 3, 2025. The first joint review occurs in 2026, providing opportunity to assess the agreement's functioning. Agricultural stakeholders emphasize need for unified strategic planning before negotiations intensify, with concerns about dairy trade access, and maintaining zero tariffs on agricultural products. Global Affairs Canada

🌾 Australia's Record Wheat Harvest Pressures Global Markets
Western Australia began harvesting what could be a record-breaking 25.4 million tonnes of grain crop, with national wheat production forecasts raised to 35.7 million tonnes, third-largest harvest on record. The strong Australian output adds to abundant global supplies, keeping Chicago benchmark wheat prices near five-year lows. Better-than-expected yields in western growing regions offset drought losses in the south, with harvesting expected to continue until January. ABC News Australia

💰 Fertilizer Prices Spike. First Time Anhydrous Tops $800 Since Dec 2023
Retail fertilizer prices showed significant volatility in early October, with DAP up 7% to $921/ton and anhydrous ammonia up 6% to $814/ton—first time anhydrous exceeded $800 since December 2023. All eight major fertilizers are now higher year-over-year, with UAN28 and UAN32 up 33%, DAP up 25%, and urea up 24%. The EU's impending carbon border tax could raise fertilizer import costs 10-20% in 2026, with high-emission suppliers like China facing steep liabilities while lower-emission US producers gain market share. DTN Progressive Farmer