PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

Good morning, a transition underway across the Canadian prairies with a weak Pacific low bringing mixed precipitation. Central and western regions see scattered rain and flurries Wednesday through Friday, while Saskatchewan and Alberta warm into the low teens midweek before a sharp cooldown. Eastern prairies face rain Thursday and Friday with temperatures near 11°C, followed by clearing and below-normal highs by the weekend. A brief reprieve over Saturday with highs reaching 12–13°C across the region, but cooler north winds return by early next week.

MARKET PULSE

Commodity Market Update

Nov/Dec futures brief for today

Grains rally on APEC trade optimism, but export fundamentals lag. January canola futures closed at $634.50/tonne (up $0.50) and soybeans near $10.76/bu (up 9 cents) on growing expectations of U.S.-China trade negotiations this week. December wheat advanced to $5.30/bu (up 4 cents). However, canola exports remain well below the 7 million tonne target, with shipments totaling just 1.079 million tonnes through October 19, the lowest level in over seven years.​

Peas hammered by tariffs; yellow pea prices down 43%. Despite a record 3.563 million tonne field pea crop, Chinese import tariffs have devastated exports. Yellow pea prices have plummeted 43%, with cash bids languishing at $7.40–$7.85/bu. Indian buyers cannot absorb Canadian volumes at these levels, leaving producers facing significant storage and cash flow headwinds.​

Wheat hits record production, but global glut caps prices. Canada's 2025 wheat production reaches 30.1 million tonnes (second largest on record), with quality above average and 80% of CWRS samples grading No. 1. However, global oversupply across major exporters limits upside pricing potential.​

Alberta yields mixed; Peace Region underperforms. Most Alberta regions report above-average crop yields, with strong canola, spring wheat, and barley quality. The Peace Region lags with average-to-below-average yields, while oats and dry peas quality fell short of trend.​

Livestock pressured; cattle weak, hogs steadier. Cash cattle across the prairies remain steady-to-weak near $226/cwt for December futures. Lean hogs show modest firmness as year-end procurement cycles stabilize product demand. Softening feed costs may support farrow-to-finish margins into Q4.​

How to Position Into the Day

Canola / Grains / Soybeans: Trade sentiment is bullish on APEC outcomes, but fundamentals (export pace, global supply) argue for caution—wait for confirmed Chinese purchase announcements before chasing rallies.

Peas / Pulse Crops: Tariff relief is the only catalyst; without policy resolution, expect further downside pressure into year-end.

Wheat: Quality supports price floor, but global oversupply limits upside; tactical bounces offer selling opportunities rather than buying signals.

Livestock: Cattle remain volatile on policy uncertainty; hogs may find support from lower feed costs, but watch prairie cash basis—regional premiums will compress as supply normalizes.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: The Western Producer - AM Market Report, CK News Today - Closing Markets, Chronicle Journal - Canola and Wheat Futures Surge, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada - Outlook for Principal Field Crops, Everything GP - Crop Yields in Peace Region, Barchart - Live Cattle Futures, Barchart - Lean Hogs Futures, Trading Economics - Live Cattle, The Pig Site - Pork Prices and Hog Futures

TRENDS

📈 The Bulls and 📉 The Bears

📈 Bullish:

• Soybeans surge to 15-month highs on China purchase confirmation ahead of Trump-Xi summit - Chicago soybean futures hit $11/bu Tuesday, highest since July 2024 after China purchased at least two to three US soybean cargoes totaling about 180,000 metric tons for December and January shipment. State-owned COFCO bought through Pacific Northwest ports, marking China's first known US soybean purchases this marketing year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC that China agreed to make "substantial" soybean purchases under the framework discussed ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, South Korea.

• Crude oil finds support on Russian sanctions and inventory draw - WTI crude steadied near $60/barrel Wednesday after the US blacklisted Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's largest oil producers. Triggering market scrutiny of potential supply disruptions. A tanker carrying Russian crude to India turned back and anchored in the Baltic Sea, signaling shipment breakdowns. Industry data showed US crude inventories fell 4.02 million barrels last week, the first decline in four weeks, along with drops in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

• Wheat rallies to mid-September highs on trade optimism despite ample global supply - Wheat futures jumped to $5.30/bu Wednesday, reaching their highest level since mid-September, fueled by renewed optimism over US-China trade negotiations. Investors focused on Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting expected to finalize the framework of a preliminary deal, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying China will resume substantial purchases of US agricultural products over several years. Despite the rally, wheat gains remain limited due to abundant global inventories.

📉 Bearish:

• Gold suffers worst single-day rout since 2013 on extreme profit-taking - Gold futures plummeted 5.7% Tuesday in the worst single-day decline since 2013, with December contracts closing at $4,087.70/oz after touching fresh record highs earlier in the session. The brutal selloff came as profit-taking swept through overbought positions after gold surged nearly 60% year-to-date. Record trading volumes combined with declining open interest indicate large players liquidated existing long positions rather than new short-selling entering the market.

• Lean hogs suffer fifth consecutive session of triple-digit losses as June/July break support - December lean hog futures closed at $80.83/cwt Tuesday, down $0.68, extending a brutal losing streak. The June and July contracts broke below support levels, likely accelerating selling pressure. Hog futures have plummeted 20.27% over the past month despite strength in cash markets. USDA's national base hog price jumped $2.74 Monday to $88.03 as packers became aggressive to take advantage of lower prices. .

• Live cattle and feeders level out after precipitous declines on Trump Argentine beef comments - December live cattle futures closed Tuesday at $226.58/cwt, down $0.60, leveling out after days of sharp declines triggered by President Trump urging cattle ranchers to lower prices while proposing to quadruple low-tariff imports of Argentine beef. Feeder cattle continued collapsing, with January contracts down $9.55 to $324.88/cwt and March down $11.65 to $319.65/cwt. CME expanded daily limits for both live cattle ($10.75) and feeders ($13.75) for Wednesday trading.

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INCASE YOU MISSED IT

Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🌱 Million Acre Challenge Focuses on 'Regenerative Farming' in Southern Ontario
The Canadian Alliance for Net-Zero Agri-Food (CANZA) launched the Million Acre Challenge, a nationwide initiative to encourage farmers to incorporate more 'climate friendly' or 'regenerative' practices onto their farms to limit carbon emissions in food production. The initiative focuses on practices like cover cropping to protect soil, limit runoff, and maintain soil nutrients. "We're calling it the Team Canada approach to climate smart agriculture, where we can stand side by side with farmers all the way through the supply chain, to retailers and researchers to say this is how we can build economic and environmental resilience into Canadian agriculture in a new way," said CANZA Executive Director Nick Betts. Bruce County beef and grain farmer Ken Schaus has used cover crops on most of his 4,000 acres for 15 years, seeing "an incredible difference in the soil, what it's become and what it's producing." CTV News London

🇨🇦 Canadian Agriculture Needs to Pivot Amid Fresh Headwinds, CAPI Conference Warns
Risk and change are inevitable in agriculture, but the need for change is more pressing than ever as the sector faces fresh headwinds, “from unpredictable trade relations and weather patterns to the advent of artificial intelligence” said speakers at the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute's "Canadian Agri-Food in a Risky World" conference in Ottawa. Industry and government officials broadly agreed on two ideas: the time for change is now, and to make that change happen, Canada will need more research funding and better data access. Speakers highlighted that Canadian agriculture's ability to adapt and innovate will determine its competitiveness in an increasingly volatile global marketplace. AgCanada TV | The Western Producer

🐟 Global Omega-3 Shortage Creates Opportunity for Canadian Flax Sector
A global shortage of omega-3 oils could be a significant opportunity for the Canadian flax sector, according to a new Rabobank report. The aquaculture industry is consuming more fishmeal and fish oil due to the expansion of high-value species and adoption of more intensive farming practices. Fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, while fish oil scarcity is expected to intensify throughout the decade. Flax oil is rich in the same omega-3 fatty acid found in fish oil, alpha-linolenic acid, which is beneficial for heart and brain health. "If tight fish oil supplies and an increased need for omega-3 oils from other sources would create stable demand for flax, it would be a win-win for the whole supply chain," said Tracy Broughton, executive director of SaskOilseeds. AgCanada TV

📊 Canadian Pulse Crop Estimates Remained Steady in October AAFC Report
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 17 supply and demand report showed no changes to pulse crop numbers for 2025/26. Production of Canadian dry peas remained at 3.56 million tonnes with exports staying at 2.2 million tonnes and domestic use holding at 672,000 tonnes. Lentil production held steady at 2.14 million tonnes with exports forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, while chickpea production remained at 161,000 tonnes with exports at 107,000 tonnes. The unchanged estimates reflect stable market conditions and production forecasts despite variable growing conditions across the Prairies. Moose Jaw Today

🦌 CFIA Extends Chronic Wasting Disease Control Program Consultation to November 21
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency extended the consultation period for proposed changes to Canada's Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) Control Program to November 21. The CFIA is seeking feedback on proposed changes intended to improve risk management in farmed cervids, like elk and deer, and better meet the needs of partners, industry, stakeholders, and consumers. The proposed changes will move away from mandatory herd destruction toward a regional, management-focused approach to control disease spread. The new proposed CWD control program will recognize regional variability in CWD status for risk management purposes. The Western Producer

🇨🇳 Minister MacDonald to Visit China to Strengthen Agricultural Trade Relations
Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald will travel to Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong from October 26-November 1 to strengthen agricultural trade relations with China and explore opportunities to diversify Canadian agricultural exports. The trip comes as Canadian canola producers face China's 75.8% anti-dumping duties on canola seed, oil, and meal that have effectively shut out the country that was previously the largest destination for Canadian canola. The visit aims to engage with Chinese officials and industry stakeholders on market access issues and promote Canadian agricultural products in one of Canada's most important export markets. Cision Newswire