PRAIRIE ROUTES
NEWS

🌟 Editor’s Note:

Morning! It appears our rain dance worked here in the Winnipeg and some surrounding areas. For those of you that missed it, sorry for rubbing it in…

MARKET PULSE

1. Commodity Market Brief – July 29th, 2025

🛢️ Energy: Oil Climbs on Trade Optimism

Brent futures rallied about 2.3% to $70.04/bbl, and WTI futures gained ~2.4% to $66.71/bbl, on news of a U.S.–EU trade pact and a shortened U.S. deadline to Russia over Ukraine. The market is pricing in the potential for stronger energy demand, even as OPEC+ may boost output further.

🏅 Metals: Gold Loses Glimmer

Gold futures dipped ~0.7% to $3,311/oz, as improved sentiment around trade tensions and a firmer dollar reduced safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, copper futures remain split: CME prices are strong, but LME equivalents show softness, indicating volatility in pricing flows.

🌽 Agriculture: Grains Slump on Bearish Outlook

December corn futures slipped to $4.14/bu, down about 5¢—its lowest in two weeks—amid forecasts of ample inventories and favorable Midwest weather. Soybean futures (Nov) fell ~7¼¢ to $10.13¾/bu, pressured by surging global supply and weak export signals.  September wheat futures held mostly steady, closing around $5.39¼/bu, buoyed by spreading support from grain positioning. Canola November futures drop almost 1 point from 695.00.

🔍 Key Points

• Oil: Up on easing trade risks; yet OPEC+ production tweaks remain key.

• Gold: Retreating as risk appetite improves and macro sentiment stabilizes.

• Grains: Facing bearish headwinds—ample supply and benign weather dominate short-term outlook.

Bottom Line: Futures markets reflect cautious bullishness in energy thanks to improving trade dynamics, while grains are under pressure from fundamentals. Watch OPEC+ announcements, export demand signals, and crop condition updates for the next directional cues.

Not financial advice. Data sources: APnews.com, Morningstar.com, MarketWatch.com, Exchange-rates.org, Agriculture.com, YahooFinance.com, Barchart.com 

BULLISH & BEARISH

2. China Attempts to Boost Domestic Consumption

Bullish:

• 🇨🇳 China Drives Premium Ag Demand, China’s newly announced strategy to boost domestic consumption of high‑quality, sustainable agricultural goods signals growing local demand, especially for green-labelled grain and oilseed products.

• 🌽 U.S. Corn Exports Holding Strong Despite China Pullback. The USDA has raised its 2024–25 U.S. corn export estimate to 2.75 billion bushels, showing resilience even as Chinese imports fall. This steady trade supports demand amid concerns over Brazil’s growing crop share.

Bearish:

• 🐂 Beef Prices Soar Amid Chronic Cattle Shortage with U.S. cattle inventories at their lowest since 1951 and imports restricted due to a disease outbreak, ground beef and steak have surged. The tight supply dynamic is pressuring feed grain demand as costs rise.

• 📉 Fertilizer Sanctions Threaten Latin Crop Supply U.S. sanctions on Russian fertilizers risk disrupting supply chains in key Latin American producers like Brazil and Mexico. A shortage could reduce crop yields and exacerbate volatility in global grain markets.

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SHARP TAKE

3. Sask Startup Tackles Peat with Pulse Power

Insight Plant Health out of Saskatoon is shaking up seed inoculants by replacing imported peat with recycled seed hulls from peas, lentils, and oats.

Why it matters:

• Cheaper than peat (imported at $1.50/kg)

• Locally sourced and more sustainable

• Viable for 30+ weeks and patent-protected

Currently in field trials across Saskatchewan, the new inoculant could cut 60,000+ tonnes of CO₂ annually and lower input costs for pulse growers. It’s clean tech with Prairie grit.

INCASE YOU MISSED IT

4. Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🇺🇸🇨🇦 Trump administration’s “managed trade” shakes up Canadian wheat: The U.S. is shifting from free trade to managed trade, with new tariffs and deals (like Bangladesh’s 700,000-tonne U.S. wheat purchase) threatening Canada’s wheat exports. Canadian Cattlemen

🧪 New pigweed herbicide approved: Bayer’s Convintro, targeting glyphosate-resistant pigweeds, gets Canadian approval for corn and soybeans. Farmtario

🐖 Canadian Pork Council rejoins the Canadian Federation of Agriculture to present a united trade front. producer.com

🗓️ AgSmart 2025 is set to kick off next week, promising a showcase of ag tech and innovation. realagriculture.com

💰 $6M in new funding for Manitoba food processors: Federal and provincial governments invest in local food processing to boost supply chain resilience. manitobacooperator.ca